I've been struggling using different free tools to see projected portfolio success % because a fixed withdrawal rate doesn't make sense given complexities like kids at home now but will be empty nesters sometime later and wanting to factor in future income streams like social security. I also want to do a reverse glidepath to incorporate the research from Pfau, Kitsces, and of course Big Ern. So I made a document of expected yearly expenses per year in today's dollars based on my assumptions and made a document with different portfolio options I am considering (tickers and dollar values). Then I fed both documents into several different free AI tools to have them run Monte Carlo simulations to find expected real return and standard deviation for my portfolio options and my % success. It was pretty cool to see the results within a few minutes and have the opportunity to simulate different asset allocations and glidepath options (Portfolio A specific years, then gradually shift into Portfolio B over x years) and ask follow-up questions. My impression was that Gemini and Claude gave me better results. Have others done similar simulations and if so, what are your thoughts on your results?
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Jelfkin
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