ChooseFI
AI for Monte Carlo Simulations

AI for Monte Carlo Simulations

Mo
mousey5 · · 15 replies

I've been struggling using different free tools to see projected portfolio success % because a fixed withdrawal rate doesn't make sense given complexities like kids at home now but will be empty nesters sometime later and wanting to factor in future income streams like social security. I also want to do a reverse glidepath to incorporate the research from Pfau, Kitsces, and of course Big Ern. So I made a document of expected yearly expenses per year in today's dollars based on my assumptions and made a document with different portfolio options I am considering (tickers and dollar values). Then I fed both documents into several different free AI tools to have them run Monte Carlo simulations to find expected real return and standard deviation for my portfolio options and my % success. It was pretty cool to see the results within a few minutes and have the opportunity to simulate different asset allocations and glidepath options (Portfolio A specific years, then gradually shift into Portfolio B over x years) and ask follow-up questions. My impression was that Gemini and Claude gave me better results. Have others done similar simulations and if so, what are your thoughts on your results?

Share
Share on Facebook
Share on X
Share on Reddit
Share via Email
Copy link

Replies (15)

Jelfkin

Jelfkin

4 months ago

JoeQ17

JoeQ17

4 months ago

AdamG

AdamG

4 months ago

bciocco

bciocco

4 months ago

mattm

mattm

4 months ago

UncleFrank

UncleFrank

4 months ago

Ondine

Ondine

4 months ago

delfi

delfi

4 months ago

joshuacole1997

joshuacole1997

4 months ago

Max

Max

4 months ago

Showing 10 of 15 replies

View all replies on Community

Comments

Your comment will be posted after signing in
Join the Conversation

Create an account or sign in to post a comment.

Username
Email

No password needed. We'll send a verification email.

Email
Password

Choose FI has partnered with CardRatings for our coverage of credit card products. Choose FI and CardRatings may earn compensation from card issuers when a customer clicks on a link, when an application is approved, or when an account is opened. Opinions, reviews, analyses & recommendations are the author's alone, and have not been reviewed, endorsed or approved by any of these entities. American Express is a ChooseFI advertiser.

Find Your FI Number

Calculate how much you need — takes 60 seconds.

Join ChooseFI

Start your financial independence journey

  • Access to the ChooseFI community
  • Exclusive FI resources and tools
  • Weekly actionable insights
or

No password needed — we'll email you a verification link.

Already have an account?

Don't have an account?

Try searching for

⌘K to open anytime

Your FI Journey

1/3

Step 1 of 3

How familiar are you with Financial Independence?