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Stay The Course
Episode 188

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Posted by Choose FI

Episode Guide

Episode Summary:

Rick Ferry discusses asset allocation using the metaphor of a birthday cake, breaking down the importance of balance between stocks, bonds, and cash for long-term investors. He emphasizes that deciding on the percentage of stocks and bonds in a portfolio is a critical choice, with stocks representing growth and bonds providing stability. Detailed comparisons are made to popular investing strategies, such as those advocated by JL Collins and Paul Merriman, highlighting the complexities of asset allocation. The conversation addresses the inherent risks in overweighting certain sectors, particularly small cap value, and the psychological implications of these investment decisions. Listeners are encouraged to develop a personalized investment strategy based on their unique circumstances, understanding that emotional comfort is paramount to maintaining long-term commitments in their portfolios.

Episode Timestamps

ChooseFI Episode Show Notes

Episode Summary:
This episode features an in-depth conversation with Rick Ferry, focusing on asset allocation and its critical role in investment success. Using a cake analogy, Ferry explains the layers of investment and emphasizes the importance of an individual's investment strategy. The discussion dives into strategies like dollar-cost averaging and the impact of market volatility on personal investment decisions.

Timestamps & Key Topics:

  • ** Podcast Intro:

  • Overview of Asset Allocation: Brad introduces Rick Ferry, discussing his influence in index fund investing and the importance of asset allocation in investing.

  • Understanding the Cake Analogy:

    • Rick Ferry explains asset allocation as the primary component of investment success.
    • Key Quote: "Asset allocation is 90% of investment success."
  • Speculation vs. Investing:

    • The risks of speculative investments compared to a well-constructed portfolio.
    • Key Quote: "Speculation can lead to risky investment choices."
  • Discussion Around Small Cap Value:

    • Exploration of the importance of small cap value and how it fits into a diversified investment strategy.
  • Personalizing Investment Strategies:

    • The importance of individualized strategies based on personal risk tolerance and lifestyle.
    • Introduction to the Boglehead philosophy promoting low-cost, passive investing.
  • Impact of Market Volatility:

    • The necessity of having an investment policy ready before market downturns.
    • Key Quote: "Keep your investment policy as your guide during turbulent times."
  • Sticking to the Investment Strategy:

    • The significance of remaining committed to your investment strategy during market fluctuations.
    • Key Quote: "Sticking to your investment strategy is crucial in a downturn."
  • Rick Ferry's Contact Info:

    • Rick shares where to find more of his work and insights on investing.
  • ** Podcast Extro:

Actionable Takeaways:

  • Focus on the core elements of your asset allocation as the foundation of your investment strategy.
  • Develop a personalized investment policy to help navigate market volatility effectively.
  • Consider emotional comfort levels when deciding between dollar-cost averaging or lump sum investing.

Discussion Questions:

  • How does your emotional resilience influence your investment decisions?
  • What strategies have you employed during market volatility in the past?
  • How do you determine your own asset allocation?

Key Quotes:

  • "Asset allocation is crucial! It's 90% of your investment success."
  • "Anchor yourself with a solid investment policy during market swings."
  • "Can't stay the course? Maybe it's time to reassess your risk!"

These notes encapsulate the discussion around investment strategies and highlight Rick Ferry's expert insights into staying grounded during market uncertainties.

Mastering Asset Allocation for Financial Independence

Navigating the world of investments can seem overwhelming, but understanding the concept of asset allocation is a crucial first step toward financial independence. This article seeks to simplify this process by focusing on the essential elements of proper asset allocation and providing actionable strategies for long-term success.

Understanding Asset Allocation

Asset allocation involves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories, including stocks, bonds, and cash. The significance of asset allocation cannot be understated—it is often said that it constitutes 90% of investment success. The ability to determine the right mix of these assets is essential for achieving your financial goals while managing risk.

The Cake Analogy

Think of your investment portfolio as a birthday cake. The major layers of this cake represent your asset classes:

  1. Stocks: The growth layer that typically offers higher returns over the long term.
  2. Bonds: The steady, lower volatility layer that helps stabilize your portfolio.
  3. Cash: The emergency layer that should be easily accessible.

Just like a cake needs each layer to be balanced for it to taste right, your portfolio needs a thoughtful allocation across these asset classes. The key decision to make—what percentage of your investments will be in stocks, bonds, and cash—is vital for your long-term success.

Crafting Your Investment Strategy

Creating a sound investment strategy begins with understanding your individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Here are key steps to consider:

Define Your Investment Policy

A well-defined investment policy acts as your guide during market fluctuations. Before facing market volatility, outline how you intend to manage your investments. Develop a strategy that includes how you will react to downturns, when to rebalance, and where to allocate new funds.

Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Investing

Deciding between dollar-cost averaging and lump-sum investing can significantly affect your investment outcome. Dollar-cost averaging involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, which can minimize emotional stress and risk during volatile periods. If you’re uncomfortable with large fluctuations and potential losses, this might be the best strategy for you. Alternatively, lump-sum investing—putting all your available capital into the market at once—can be advantageous if you can tolerate temporary market downswings and plan to hold for the long term.

Managing Market Volatility

Market volatility is an inherent part of investing. It can be daunting, but having a clear plan can help you remain composed in turbulent times.

Emotional Resilience is Key

Stay committed to your investment strategy even during downturns. Emotional resilience allows you to navigate the market's ups and downs without panicking. If you find it difficult to stick to your strategy in a downturn, you may need to reassess your risk tolerance and adjust your asset allocation.

Rebalance Your Portfolio

Regularly rebalance your portfolio to ensure it aligns with your original strategy. This can mean buying more stocks when prices drop to maintain your desired asset allocation. By doing so, you position yourself to recover more quickly when markets turn around.

Embracing Individuality in Investing

No two investors are alike, so your asset allocation should reflect your unique circumstances. Consider the following:

Assess Your Financial Situation

Your asset allocation will vary based on your age, income, financial goals, and personal risk tolerance. A rule of thumb is that younger individuals may afford to take more risks (more equities) compared to those nearing retirement.

Think Long-Term

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Maintain perspective and resist the urge to make impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements. Establish a long-term view that accounts for potential downturns.

Key Takeaways for Successful Investing

  1. Focus on Asset Allocation: Prioritize your asset allocation strategy—it constitutes the foundation of successful investing.
  2. Develop a Personalized Investment Policy: Create a plan tailored to your financial goals and risk tolerance before market volatility occurs.
  3. Consider Your Emotional Comfort: Assess your emotional resilience and determine whether dollar-cost averaging or lump-sum investing aligns with your comfort level.

Conclusion

Mastering asset allocation is essential for anyone on the path to financial independence. Establishing a clear investment policy, understanding your emotional resilience, and recognizing that each investment strategy must be personalized is crucial for long-term success. Remember, investing isn't solely about the numbers—it's about adhering to a strategy that fits your individual circumstances and goals.

For more information and personalized guidance, consider seeking resources or experts who can help you build a successful investment strategy over the long term. Embrace your unique investing journey and stay committed to your financial independence goals.

Rick Ferri joins the show to discuss asset allocation.

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This is second installment of his interview. If you'd like to hear about Rick's backstory and his views on index funds vs the asset under management model check out his first interview, Escape From Wall Street.

Asset Allocation

Asset allocation is like a birthday cake. The layers are your asset classes, stock, fixed income, and cash. How to allocate between these layers is 90% of the cake. The most important decision you make as an investor is how to weight these layers.

The second decision is where to invest each of these layers. Broad market index funds such as total us stock market fund or total world index fund. For bonds, you might invest in a total bond market index fund, or a combo of CDs and a total bond market fund. And cash you'll likely keep in a money market fund.

At this point you've built 95% of your cake--or investment strategy.

The icing on the cake is small decisions like do you want to add some real estate, or emerging markets, or more technology funds. And the candles are one-off speculative such as buying an individual stock.

Small Cap Value

Paul Merriman calls small cap value an asset class but Rick disagrees stating that small cap value stocks are included in a broad-based total stock market fund. Rick believes going after specific types of stocks, such as small cap value, overweights that portion of your asset allocation. Which is fine if you are willing to take that risk.

If you are going to weight heavily towards small cap value stocks you need to stick with it for the long term--like 25 or 30 years.

Listen: Paul Merriman Introduces The Ultimate Buy And Hold Portfolio

Bond Allocation

Conventional wisdom says your age should dictate what percentages you should have in stocks and what percentage you should have in bonds. Rick disagrees with this approach. This is an individual decision. Your risk tolerance drives this decision, not your age.

Rick's investment philosophy is low-cost index investing. But he believes that investment strategy is determined by the individual and very personal. If you believe in your asset allocation you are more likely to stick with it during a downturn.

Deciding Your Own Asset Allocation

All you need to do is figure out what percentages will be in your cake layers--stocks, fixed income, cash. This will be 90% of your investing decisions.

Which specific index funds you should use is less relevant. How much can you handle in a down market? when the market went down 30% in three weeks, what did you do? What did you want to do? Are you going to follow your own investment policy?

Investing is not a sprint--it's a long term marathon.

Listen: JL Collins Stock Series Part 1

Should You Invest A Lump Sum Right Now?

The math suggests you should invest a lump sum, however emotionally it may not be the best strategy. If doing so will cause you to lose sleep if things are more volatile going forward. If you aren't up for taking the risk, dollar cost average the money in over time.

Connect With Rick Ferri

Check out his website rickferri.com

Listen to his Boglehead Podcast

On Twitter at @rick_ferri

He is also active at bogleheads.org

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