Portfolio Construction and Modeling Tools

You can model asset classes on Portfolio Visualizer for free and get access to data going back further than the 10 year limit they impose on modeling individual ticker data.

It's better to model using asset classes rather than individual tickers. There's a lot more historical data for asset classes, so your models will be better for it. Another reason to model on asset classes is that the individual fund you hold is far less impactful on portfolio behavior than the fund's asset class.

Two other great tools to check out:

portfoliocharts.com

Portfolio Charts is a fantastic resource. They have many free tools and a few more tools available to subscribers. The subscription fee is a pay-what-you-want model with $5/month being the lowest donation. The website creator also writes excellent, well researched articles. Definitely check out the whole website.

testfol.io

Also check out testfol dot io which is another great free online tool similar to Portfolio Visualizer.

I also have a Projection Lab subscription. You can model for free in their sandbox, you just can't save your scenarios without a paid account. Using their sandbox will give you a chance to decide if you want to pay for a subscription. Also check out their video tutorials on YouTube for thorough walkthroughs of their platform.

I love Projection Lab. It’s given me the confidence to make my decision to RE.

It is quick to start, but with time and tweaking it gives me much more and the ability to toggle future options.

Worth a look…

Be well,

Bob

I like the idea of using 3 disparate types of planning tools (all of which may model portfolio allocations, depending on the specific tool):

1. Monte Carlo simulations
2. Funded Ratio
3. Safe Withdrawal Rate (worst case of historical backtest and forward-looking CAPE-based) calculator

By using tools with completely different methodologies, more robust confirmation of the validity of a plan can be established.

PortfolioVisualizer uses Monte Carlo, or you can use a free Monte Carlo retirement planning tool from one of the large brokers (Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab).

Funded Ratio is based on converting everything to present values. See

obliviousinvestor.com

and

retirementresearcher.com

I'm not sure if Funded Ratio tools have straightforward ways to model different portfolio allocations or not, though.

Finally, EarlyRetirementNow.com's Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) Toolbox spreadsheet

earlyretirementnow.com

provides estimates for SWR based on different allocations and other assumptions you can enter.

I too was recently looking for a modeling tool, and settled on ProjectionLab. I bought a 1 yr subscription for $100. The tool has been very helpful, and I especially like the visuals and easy to use interface. I can "tweak the dials" and see the different outcomes. For example, what if we sell the house and rent a condo 5 years from now, or what if we double our pre-tax conversions, etc. Like other calculators, the tool runs monte carlo simulations based on market history and gives you a percent chance of success. ProjectionLab seems to be one of a number of good tools out there to pick from. I also have built several of my own spreadsheets, but these a much more limited, esp. for tax ramifications and running quick "what ifs" which ProjectionLab handles well.

Have you tried FireCalc.com? I love it! It basically runs your situation through all previous years of our country's economic situation and tells you how your portfolio would have fared through the best and worst times in our history. Really fun. Takes a little getting used to the format, but I find it really cool. (It's free, but you can donate. I donated because I like it so much.)