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Factor Investing

Factor Investing

samuelwillowcreek
samuelwillowcreek 43 XP · · 15 replies

Hey everybody, nice meeting you all!

What are your thoughts on factor investing (i.e., the strategy pioneered and developed by Fama-French and their successors in financial research)? I know it is not strictly index investing. Nevertheless, from my understanding, it does follow the same fundamental understanding of the market being efficient and diversification at low costs is the way to go. It just takes the idea of market cap weighted funds one step further in tune with the contemporary financial research.

At least that is what I have read and heard. Now, I am a bit sceptical and hesistant as I very much do not believe in active management and prefer the market to let it do its thing. But what if factor investing is exactly this but implemented in such a way to really have an edge on mcw portfolios? Anyways, I would highly appreciate your thoughts on this topic.

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Replies (15)

djcanu

djcanu

56 XP

3 months ago

I'm big into factor investing. It really fits with FI because you're eliminating waste. Just have to be careful, some are better then others. I personally use SPMO and IUS. different lenses on each.

I came across a decent article that discusses the process of elimination in portfolios. It most discussed eliminating small caps but the logic applies to factor investing as well.

Matt Lammer

Matt Lammer

671 XP

4 months ago

Data supports Factor-based investing. The current issue for investors is the fees on the Factor-centric funds are too high to account for the slightly better outcomes. As more Factor-based ETFs are created, with increased competition and increased management efficiency, fees will come down slightly. At that point, it will be obvious that the best practice way to invest in Early-Mid Accumulation Phase will be to just do that Factor-based investing via one or few ETFs designed for that.

A review of Warren Buffet's deals found that most of his gains can be explained away with Factor-based investing, even if that isn't the methodology he was thinking he was using.

adamk

adamk

172 XP

4 months ago

I can see most of you talk about small cap here, but momentum is also considered factor investing I think. Global Equities Momentum (GEM) strategy is proven to generate somewhat better returns than simple passive investing. Also known as dual momentum, it asks to track the return of some indexes (e.g. Developed Markets / Emerging Markets / bonds, or US stocks / ex-US stocks / bonds) over a specific period (e.g. 1 year back) and always switch your entire portfolio to the one that performs best in this metric.

I was considering using GEM for part of my portfolio, but I eventually decided to stay with classic passive investing, because GEM has following disadvantages:

  • It may be very difficult psychologically, if you need to switch your entire portfolio and you see a loss since the previous switch, because that signal turned out to be a bad prediction of the future.
  • On the other hand, if you sell with a gain, you may need to pay lots of capital gain tax quite often (unless you do it on a tax advantage account).
Jtaylor

Jtaylor

16 XP

4 months ago

I'm not much into Factor Investing, but I'd highly recommend the Rational Reminder podcast. It's run by a Canadian wealth management firm, but they're investment strategy is just owning Dimensional funds. It's a great podcast on investing regardless with interviews with many financial heavyweights, but it will defintily discuss the pros and cons of factor investing

thinkpad12

thinkpad12

322 XP

4 months ago

This may be slightly unrelated, but I have always wondered if P.E. ratios should be looked at differently after we got off the gold standard. It just seems unfair to compare P.E. ratios for the 30s to the inflation fueled fever dream we live in now.

CincyFlyer

CincyFlyer

490 XP

4 months ago

If you want to hold just one fund, then yes, factor tilts with a solid fund like AVUS or AVGE probably work, or at least won’t hurt you. Maybe 1-2% alpha, which can significant when compounded over a long period.

When you hold a more diversified portfolio, factors must be part of the strategy, but in a different way. For instance, pairing VUG with AVUV yields a better return than either alone.

thinkpad12

thinkpad12

322 XP

4 months ago

I actually really flip flopped back and forth on this. I ultimately came to the conclusion that these factor tilts rarely add positive alpha to a portfolio. Not to say they can't but I think the value premium is pretty tight. Back in the day when you had to buy these funds from DFA through an advisor it was a toughs sell. If you want to add some factor tilt ETFs there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, but keep something like VTI and VXUS and your core holdings.

I actually used to buy DFSV and AVDV, but recently sold after reading this Big ERN blog post.

I have had conversations with others and it just seems like a lot of hassle when I want a very hands off accumulation portfolio.

BostonFI

BostonFI

5,244 XP

4 months ago

Karsten Jeske (a.k.a., Big ERN) is a very smart person, but I disagree with how much he massages historical data. It seems to me he dismisses or alters historical data when it doesn't align with his established views. I come from a strong STEM/research background and this manipulation of data doesn't sit well with me.

Tyler from Portfolio Charts does a much better job than I could responding to Karsten's long-running criticism of SCV.

thinkpad12

thinkpad12

322 XP

4 months ago

I also come from a STEM background. I got my B.S. in electricap engineering and have always worked in private sector electronics.

Can you point me to an example of his data manipulation? I do enjoy his work, but he also did convince me to sell my DFSV and AVDV positions so I am really curious about how he is skewing the data on this one.

Is this almost one of those classic examples of when we say past results don't guarantee future performance but then we look at the past and act likes it's gospel?

BostonFI

BostonFI

5,244 XP

4 months ago

Here is Paul Merriman's response (over two episodes of Sound Investing) to Karsten's "di-worse-fication" article that you shared.

  1. Why Should Small Cap Value Make Higher Returns?

Frank Vasquez over at Risk Parity Radio also discusses Karsten's article in Episode 401. Frank gives a specific example of Karsten's cherry picking. Start at 6:02 but especially 11:09-19:44.

The article I shared from Tyler is the most recent critique of Karsten's approach that I'm aware of.

thinkpad12

thinkpad12

322 XP

4 months ago

As for Episode 401 of Risk Parity, I think Karsten most likely omitted DFSVX, because DFA funds were only available through specific financial advisors in the U.S. until recently. In 2020 DFA launched ETFs that could be purchases by anyone.

If you are paying a 1% AUM fee and then 0.31% expense ratio that would have eaten at least some of the alpha that that fund had from 2001 to 2010.

I think most F.I. people will avoid AUM advisors, so discarding a mutual fund that needed one doesn't seem crazy.

thinkpad12

thinkpad12

322 XP

4 months ago

So, I will admit I don't have a hill I am willing to die on here. A couple thoughts, Karsten does seem to be using some tacking that I learned in "How to Lie With Statistics". It is a great book and well worth the read. I don't have a PhD in economics, so I am not even going to begin to act like I would know how to go back an create a Small Cap Value fund before they existed. When I look at something like DFSVX there are times it has beat the index and times it does not. However, it does seem to be heavily correlated to the S&P 500 / general U.S. market. The small cap value funds tend to be even more volatile. How are they adding diversification if they are essentially over weighting to one specific thing and causing more volatility?

When it comes to something like the golden butterfly it seems that you are trying to buy assets that are less correlated. This seems good on the surface, but Small Cap Value and U.S. large caps are very correlated and often times Small Cap Value increases volatility.

I think the other thing this comes down to is how much do you really believe in the 5 factor Fama French 3 / 5 factor models. I think from a pure academic perspective all of the data says buy small cap value now. The CAPE is crazy. The valuations are crazy.

I just wonder how much alpha really is here. I don't know. If someone wants to add some U.S. small cap value and international small cap value I have no issue with that. However, when we start to say it can increase a safe withdrawal rate that is where I start to hesitate because I just don't know well enough.

It also feels like people love to say past results don't guarantee future performance and then latch onto the past to justify something.

If someone has a very long investment horizon I actually like the idea of adding some small cap value, but my pause comes from the fact that I have just flip flopped so hard back and forth on it. I chose the standard VTI/VXUS approach. My logic was that Small Cap Value is already in their, in theory. Who knows maybe I add it maybe I don't, but the Paul Merriman posts make me want to dig deeper.

BostonFI

BostonFI

5,244 XP

4 months ago

The small cap value funds tend to be even more volatile. How are they adding diversification if they are essentially over weighting to one specific thing and causing more volatility?

One thing that Karsten has held up in debates about SCV is his misrepresentation that proponents think SCV is going to outperform LCG in the future. While SCV does outperform in some years , that isn't the feature proponents are after. Proponents like SCV because its returns are similar to LCG yet SCV and LCG perform well under different conditions. So some years SCV is better and other years LCG is better. This difference creates opportunities to take advantage of Shannon's Demon and the rebalancing bonus , which can actually improve returns. In this context, SCV's greater volatility is a feature not a bug. In terms of overweighting, someone holding only LCG/LCB for equities is already overweighting in one equity class. Diversifying within equities (doesn't have to be SCV) can be beneficial.

when we start to say it can increase a safe withdrawal rate that is where I start to hesitate because I just don't know well enough.

You might be interested in another article from Tyler at Portfolio Charts: How Safe Withdrawal Rates Work .

It also feels like people love to say past results don't guarantee future performance and then latch onto the past to justify something.

While true about past performance, past behavior is a useful guide. Large companies tend to perform well during falling inflation and rising interest rates. The opposite is true of small companies. They tend to perform well during rising inflation and falling interest rates. This is because small companies are more reliant on debt than large companies.

BostonFI

BostonFI

5,244 XP

4 months ago

Factors are the chocolate chips in an oatmeal cookie. They are the specific components of broad asset classes that are responsible for returns so factor investing boosts the benefits of modern portfolio theory.

Factor investing isn't mutually exclusive with passive index investing. Funds like VTWO use as their benchmark the Russell 2000 index which tracks small-minus-big (SMB). Funds like VBR use as their benchmark the CRSP US Small Cap Value index which combines SMB with high-minus-low (HML).

While there are passive funds for some factors, other factors like up-minus-down (UMD) a.k.a., momentum are available only as actively managed. Even for factors that are available as passive, you can get more juice for the squeeze if you pay for active management. AVUV for example (EXP 0.25%) is similar to VBR (EXP 0.05%) in that it invests in US small-cap value but it also filters for robust-minus-weak (RMW) a.k.a., profitability. So far, AVUV appears to be worth paying a bit extra in expense ratio for that tilt toward profitability.

Two excellent resources that will teach you about factor investing are the book Your Complete Guide to Factor-based Investing by Berkin and Swedroe and the Risk Parity Radio podcast which is hosted by UncleFrank@UncleFrank. The book is very educational and very dull. While I do recommend reading it, White Coat Investor has a great book review that will give you the CliffsNotes version. The RPR podcast is very educational and (I think) very entertaining. Check out episode 363 for a discussion on implementing factor investing in your portfolio.

samuelwillowcreek

samuelwillowcreek

43 XP

4 months ago

Thank you very much! I will look into those sources.

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