So, I will admit I don't have a hill I am willing to die on here. A couple thoughts, Karsten does seem to be using some tacking that I learned in "How to Lie With Statistics". It is a great book and well worth the read. I don't have a PhD in economics, so I am not even going to begin to act like I would know how to go back an create a Small Cap Value fund before they existed. When I look at something like DFSVX there are times it has beat the index and times it does not. However, it does seem to be heavily correlated to the S&P 500 / general U.S. market. The small cap value funds tend to be even more volatile. How are they adding diversification if they are essentially over weighting to one specific thing and causing more volatility?
When it comes to something like the golden butterfly it seems that you are trying to buy assets that are less correlated. This seems good on the surface, but Small Cap Value and U.S. large caps are very correlated and often times Small Cap Value increases volatility.
I think the other thing this comes down to is how much do you really believe in the 5 factor Fama French 3 / 5 factor models. I think from a pure academic perspective all of the data says buy small cap value now. The CAPE is crazy. The valuations are crazy.
I just wonder how much alpha really is here. I don't know. If someone wants to add some U.S. small cap value and international small cap value I have no issue with that. However, when we start to say it can increase a safe withdrawal rate that is where I start to hesitate because I just don't know well enough.
It also feels like people love to say past results don't guarantee future performance and then latch onto the past to justify something.
If someone has a very long investment horizon I actually like the idea of adding some small cap value, but my pause comes from the fact that I have just flip flopped so hard back and forth on it. I chose the standard VTI/VXUS approach. My logic was that Small Cap Value is already in their, in theory. Who knows maybe I add it maybe I don't, but the Paul Merriman posts make me want to dig deeper.