Is Projection Lab Premium Worth The $129?

I think that any of the major tools (ProjectionLab, Boldin, FIREproofme) are well worth their subscription fees if the following are true:

1. You're saavy enough to dig into a complicated tool.
2. It helps you plan a detailed withdrawal strategy that optimizes taxes, ACA subsidies, Roth Conversions, or even FAFSA aid.
3. It helps you retire earlier than you otherwise would, because you didn't realize all of the math around retirement.

Those are the major benefits, and #2 can be an argument to keep them year after year, if they're saving you money.

If you're not one to take the time to learn complicated pieces of software, then don't torture yourself.

PL has given me the confidence to retire according to a plan that a fee-based advisor gave us. Also BIG TIP… you can go into your settings in PL, export your data via JSON… and then upload it to Claude… Claude found about 10 mistakes I made and inconsistencies which I was able to fix in my plan. I could also give it screen shots of the monte carlo runs and those outputs and it explained a few important views (like SPEND FLEX) which I was unaware of.

I find ProjectionLab to be well worth the cost. Others have chimed in on many of your other questions, but on your first, check out the Rich, Broke, or Dead calculator. It's certainly not as robust of a tool overall, but it does an excellent job of visualizing mortality risk compared to the risk of running out of money.

A couple of thoughts here. First, there is no ONE tool or software out there. Well some are great for certain aspects, they then don't do other things well if at all. So first figure out exactly what you are trying to do, then find a tool that can solve for that.

Next, all projection type calculators have either an internal bias or they force you to put in flatline rates (and thus your bias), so be aware of the assumptions that any calculator or projection tool has. For instance, if you put the same information in ProjectionLab and Boldin, you'll get different results, since they do their calculations differently and have different inputs. The differences may be small or quite large.

That said, Projectionlab, Boldin, and there's a third ReadyAimRetire.com are all pretty good at what they do well. Provide ideas on potential taxes, tax planning, roth conversions, detailed expenses over time, withdrawals by bucket, and overall projections in a graphical format. For those in or approaching retirement and trying to figure out taxes and conversions, it's great. ChatGPT can do this as well but I trust these softwares more currently. However, for portfolio projections they all base portfolio growth on simple one stock and one bond portfolio and on single line growth. Yes they do monte carlo per se but truly just back test to a prior year (if you retired in 1960 or 1920). While history rhymes it does not repeat.

One quick note, ReadyAimRetire offers monthly subscription, so if you want a more detailed tryout and don't want to commit to a year, this is a good option. I use them myself.

Last point as BostonFI answered your other questions, for the portfolio analysis side, I highly suggest Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals. This is the one true portfolio projection tool that uses actual historical rates for many different asset classes and inflation so that you can see how your portfolio of VTI, VXUS, BND, TLT, VBR has done over time based on your withdrawals & contributions. It isn't as user friendly or visual appealing as the others, but it is much more accurate for the point of comparing inflow/outflow with a real portfolio and it's history. The free version works well for asset classes (paid is needed for ticker specific). Key note here, when I put in the same data into ProjectionLab or Boldin and compared to Portfolio Visualizer, ProjectionLab and Boldin were much more conservative (lower success rate).

Now the real magic is when you combine the tools, use Testfolio and Portfolio Charts to backtest and determine the portfolio for you. Then ReadyAimRetire or other to run detailed analysis to confirm yearly taxes, conversions, and details. and then use PV to see the most accurate success based on your chosen portfolio and expected inflow/outflow. And use your excel to fill in the gaps or track other items these tools don't (as I use my excel for expenses and portfolio rebalancing).

This week's Inside Out Money episode was all about Projection Lab. I don't think they answered any of your specific questions during the episode, but they do address the cost and do a quick comparison with Boldin.

I bought a lifetime subscription to PL in the early days when that option was available and reasonably priced. They later increased the price of the lifetime subscription then eventually eliminated it. I viewed this as an investment because the tool at the time lacked some features I'm looking for but I feel PL has potential to mature into a great tool. I expect the developers will sell it one day.

They take development cues from subscribers who can make feature suggestions and vote on proposed features. I was also impressed by the tool's excellent data visualization and clean UX. I really like the tax tool. The Roth conversion modeling is very useful as well as running scenarios.

Considering what you get for the price, PL's $129/year Premium tier is quite good. Boldin charges $144/year for their equivalent PlannerPlus tier. Testfolio which has some great tools but isn't as comprehensive as either PL or Boldin charges $150/year for their Pro tier.

#1 AFAIK PL doesn't predict life expectancy. You can get that info though from the Social Security actuarial table then plug it into PL. Use what they list as your base probability and only adjust it if you have strong reason to believe you'll live longer or die sooner. SS has the average woman living to 85 but women in my family tend to live a few years past 90. I live a healthy lifestyle so there's a fair chance I will too.

#2 I asked Google's AI and several financial gurus offer a 10% discount on a PL subscription through their newsletters. The AI indicated Rob Berger's discount code is RBERGER-10 or you can subscribe to Rob's newsletter to get one if that code isn't current.

#3 Check out Testfolio and Portfolio Charts for great free tools that include a greater diversity of assets. PC doesn't have TIPS but Testfolio does; they seem to have everything.