Not trusting the numbers

I don't think one more year syndrome is the end of the world when you're talking about CoastFI, because the longer you put it off, the closer you are to full FI. Use this time to figure out exactly what job one of you will take. Does that person like the idea of the transition? If so, they can apply for the job and follow through if/when they get it. The other person might want to wait until the person in the new job has time to adjust before leaving their current position. Congrats on reaching your goal!

I recently went through this for FI in general as I was being laid off and wondered if I could just be work optional now at 48. I wound up feeling like I needed a financial advisor to look at my numbers (I went with someone via Nectarine). It was super helpful and I met with her a second time a couple of weeks ago to strategize a bit as I will need some sort of income since I plan to move back to a HCOL area in the next few years.

But I think what I really needed was someone to give me permission to take a break from work because I just wasn’t doing that myself. I was burned out and tired of what I was doing but felt pressured to find something else right away. I’m now nearly four months into my break from work and I have to say it’s been one of the most nourishing and enlightening times of my life. I’m incredibly grateful that I have the financial means to press pause for a bit.

I know we’re in different situations but I do suggest considering that you have the information you need but maybe you’re not giving yourself permission to accept it. More money never hurts but it sure is nice to do life a little differently if you have the financial means to.

Thanks for the responses and insight, I think in our case it really is about the numbers and trying to check and double check them before taking the next step. We have decided what that will be and instead of going in to that aspect in detail here, as this was just about the figures and not the next step process, we're secure in that portion. But thanks for bringing that up for food for thought as well!

I agree with Frank….this is more mental than math. Top priority (but it takes time)….map out and get comfortable with whatever's next. Is it keeping this job but maybe working less (less per week or asking for more unpaid time off), is it finding a more fun / fulfilling job, is it finding peace that you have X years til ful retirement and trying to sleep better at night, or is it….I need to be 100% FI to sleep at night?

Here is where I may lose the Frank endorsement lol. I don't think its bad or ill advised to lean into a year (or 2) of "1 more year syndrome" just as long as A) you're being honest, that it is for peace of mind NOT necessity, and B), you make a hard limit on how much is too much ahead of time C) you make FIRM plans to figure out the next phase while you save 1 or 2 more years.

Lastly, I especially don't mind 1-more-year syndrome when markets are on highs. My crystal ball is just as broken as everyone else's. I am not an active trader, am not much of a market timer…..BUT, I don't think it is unreasonable to think there is an above-average chance of a bear market/recession. Bear markets happen, on average, every 4 years; recessions, on average….every 7 years (ish). If a 2022-like bear market/recession (where stocks AND bonds pulled back for a while) happened in early 2027….how would you react? If you answer "lose sleep" and "regret my decision"…..there are 2) things I would consider. First….derisk a little more NOW. Reduce your equity exposure, take on more bonds, research how to add a little extra diversification through gold, managed futures, "EX US" bonds and so on. Frank has some really great content on that. IF nothing else…put a little more in your bond bucket. Second, save an additional year's expenses in bonds (IE…keep saving for a year or 2 more….put it all in a bond ladder/bond bucket). You are not having a math problem….you have a mental hurdle.

I LOVE Cody Garett…puts out EPIC content when he does guest appearances on podcasts. He recommends (not personal…just GENERAL…so you do you) 7 years in a bond ladder. The average non-inflation-adjusted amount of time from the start of a recession to getting back to the pre-recession level is about 2.5-3 years. Adjusted for inflation, about 3-3.5 years. While no recession (1) has taken longer than 5 years to "get back" since WWII (the dot-com recession is debated if it was fully "back or not), we have had really poor decades with back-to-back recessions and low returns like 2000-2012 (dot-com crash….ALMOST gets back to pre-crash level and boom….great recession).

That said….could you coast IF you had 5-7 years in a bond ladder? No….how about 8 years? 9 years? Remember….when the markets tank…rates likely get pulled back and your bonds go up in value in addition to the yield.

For me, at retirement (I like a little risk), I will be using 5 years…..and slowly progressing up to 6….then to 7 as I hit my mid-seventies (for peace of mind for my wife). I love my career and, at this point, wouldn't be crushed mentally if markets fell and I had to keep working a year or two longer.

I think you really just need to review your risk profile and are you comfortable with the risk level of you investments now? No….derisk and MAYBE save a little more. MAKE a promise to yourself to NOT get stuck in 1 more year syndrome past 1 or 2 years. You have this random, stranger's permission to lean into 1-more-year syndrome for saving as long as you are actively developing plans for your next phase and maybe to get some MORE personal time back in the coming year or two.

That's common. But that's not likely the real issue.

The real issue as you have stated is that you have no defined plan other than "stop working at these stressful jobs." Do "some sort of less stressful work" is not a concrete plan to do anything in particular. It is not interesting, exciting or fun. It doesn't scream "this is a way better life than the status quo."

Its time for you to sit down and answer the question, "what would we actually do if we are not working in these jobs?" And it has to be a gung ho, can't wait to get started doing that, or something like that. Because if its not, quitting your jobs for a "maybe we'll like this better" future is just not very attractive.

Fixating on the numbers now is just avoiding addressing the elephant in the room – because if you can say "maybe we're not there yet" and "I don't trust the numbers no matter what they are", you have an built-in excuse not to plan anything different.

Not everyone who reaches Coast FI is ready to do something different, and maybe you are just not there yet. And maybe one of you is ready and the other one isn't. I'd put the numbers aside and start working on those plans first.

It's common to feel some self-doubt when making a big life change. Up until now you've been walking the same path as everyone around you: you have a job; you're earning. But eventually you approach the less-traveled side trail that you've been planning on diverting onto and you think, am I really doing this?"

My first suggestion is if you've been using basic online calculators to use a more robust tool to test your plan. Boldin and ProjectionLab are two online tools that are popular with the ChooseFI community. Both have a basic subscription tier that is free, but even their full-feature subscriptions are affordable.

My second suggestion is to consider paying for an advice-only advisor to do a more thorough review of your plan. Nectarine and PlanVision are two advice-only services that are popular with ChooseFI members though I've not used them myself.

Yep, there as well. The numbers work and I can do 4 months on/8 off for the rest of my career (accumulating pension and benefits for the long run). Did a first try of this sabbatical this past year and it was great (and I have to do one last full year now, more for ‘political’ reasons). But the fear is still there. What I tell myself is that I can always go back full time for a year or two in the event of a very bad market year or in case of an emergency. But it won’t sneak up on us like a bad surprise in 20 years, we can check progress and readjust along the way. Or tell yourself you are simply doing a ‘test’ year to see, easing into it 😉. I’m telling you, it’s hard to go back full time after that!!